Iron Ore 62% Fe Intelligence Report

Prices consolidate near $98/mt as the iron ore market enters a period of range-bound trading between structural surplus forces and cost floor support. SGX TIO=F settled at $98.31/mt on July 13, essentially flat week-on-week (+0.30%) and within 1.5% of the 52-week low of $96.50. Chinese port inventories remain elevated at 173 Mt (Mysteel 47-port, Jul 9), 20.8% above the same week in 2025, despite a modest 1.36 Mt weekly draw. Seaborne arrivals are up 4.8% YTD to 636 Mt with no supply pullback expected from Australia or Brazil through H2 2026. Simandou has shipped 7.4 Mt across 35 cargoes since November 2025. China's steel demand is contracting an estimated 0.6-1.5% in 2026 (OECD/worldsteel), with construction demand falling ~4.1%. The surplus is widening — the path of least resistance is lower, but a floor is forming near $95/t where marginal Chinese domestic ore production becomes uneconomic.