US HRC opens mid-August 2026 at $1,196/st — up 27.2% YTD at the top of its 52-week range, with the rally now fully plateaued. Nucor's fourth consecutive weekly hike decelerated to +$5 (CSP $1,160/st, week beginning Aug 10) and SMU's spot canvass held at $1,180/st, unchanged week over week. THE STRUCTURAL DRIVER: Section 232 at 50% keeps the US market tariff-walled, but the decisive change versus early August is the deferred futures curve repricing UP — Jan-27 now $1,144/st and Dec-27 $1,051, versus the prior $940 anchor. That removes the market's old "21% normalization" bet and prices only a ~4% decline to early 2027. The Q4 import wave is now data-confirmed: July import permits hit 2.29M nt, +10.1% month over month and the highest since June 2025, with Korean permits up 79.7% YoY. US capacity utilization slipped to 78.8% (week ending Aug 8), the first print below the 80% threshold in weeks. China remains the deflationary anchor — SHFE HRC at 3,279 CNY/mt near two-year lows — though CISA mill inventories fell 10.2% from Jul 20 to Jul 31 as production cuts finally bite. Buyers should cover 6-8 weeks and lock H1 2027 futures near $1,144, the cheapest forward coverage of the cycle.
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