US HRC opens mid-August 2026 at $1,195/st — up 27.1% YTD but with momentum visibly cooling. Nucor trimmed its weekly hike to +$10 (CSP $1,155/st, week beginning Aug 3), the third consecutive increase but the smallest step of the rally; WSD spot canvass at $1,150-1,170 now sits above the CSP, an inversion that historically marks late-stage uptrends. THE STRUCTURAL DRIVER: Section 232 at 50% plus US capacity utilization at 80.5% (week ending Jul 25) keep the domestic market tight, but the futures curve holds deferred contracts near $940/st, pricing a return to normalization. The EU safeguard (effective Jul 1) cut duty-free quotas to ~18 Mt with out-of-quota duty at 50%; Turkey's HRC quota exhausted day one. The Q4 import wave — Korean and Turkish sheet orders arriving late September and early October — is the primary downside catalyst. The plateau is confirmed. Buyers should cover 6-8 weeks but avoid extending into 2027.
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