The US HRC steel market opens August 2026 with CME HRC at $1,191/st, up 3.2% from mid-July but the structural rally phase is now decisively transitioning to plateau. Nucor left its Consumer Spot Price unchanged at $1,130/st after 23 straight weekly increases dating to January — the clearest signal yet that the supply-driven uptrend has exhausted. THE STRUCTURAL DRIVER: Cleveland-Cliffs continues its multi-facility idling program (Riverdale mill shut Jun 30, Burns Harbor and Gary plate facilities being idled), tightening US supply further. Section 232 at 50% maintains the US ~$800/mt premium over global prices, with imports at their lowest since 2009. The EU safeguard overhaul (effective Jul 1) reduces duty-free quotas to 18.3 Mt overall with out-of-quota tariff at 50% — Turkey's HRC quota was exhausted on day one. Nucor executives (Jul 28 earnings) expect strong demand to persist through H2 2026 and into 2027, but the futures curve remains backwardated at deferred levels of $890-$1,000/st, pricing in normalization. The plateau is confirmed. Buyers should not expect further material upside.
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