HRC Steel Intelligence Report — July 21, 2026

BUYER POSITION: DEFENSIVE

The US HRC steel market enters late July 2026 with CME HRC at $1,154/st, consolidating near cycle highs. The supply-driven rally that lifted prices 33% year-on-year is transitioning to a plateau. Nucor left prices unchanged for the second consecutive month — the clearest plateau signal to date. THE STRUCTURAL DRIVER: The EU safeguard overhaul (effective July 1) continues to reshape trade flows — Fastmarkets Northern Europe HRC index rose to EUR 710/t by mid-July. US Section 232 remains at 50%. US capacity utilization at 79.8% (AISI), raw steel YTD +6.0% YoY. Iron ore at $98.70/mt (TIO=F), stable in surplus. SHFE HRC at CNY 3,381/mt (-0.15% daily). The market remains bifurcated: tariff-protected US tightness vs. global surplus from China's overcapacity — expect range-bound trading at elevated levels with downside risk from softening global demand heading into Q4.

$1,154

/st · -0.2% daily

Data status: CME US Midwest HRC at $1,154/st (Jul 21). SHFE HRC at 3,381 CNY/mt (Jul 21). EU HRC Northern Europe at ~EUR 710/t ex-works (Fastmarkets, Jul 14). US capacity utilization 79.8% (AISI, week ending Jun 27). Section 232 at 50% on wholly steel items. EU safeguard overhaul effective Jul 1 (quota 18.3 Mt total, HRC quota 5.2 Mt, out-of-quota duty 50%). Iron ore TIO=F at $98.70/mt. Sources: CME Group, SHFE, AISI, Fastmarkets, Steel Market Update, Ryerson, SMM, EUROMETAL, ChemAnalyst. Data gaps noted in full report.