The US HRC steel market enters mid-July 2026 with CME HRC at $1,156/st, essentially flat since early July — the consolidation phase continues. The supply-driven rally that lifted prices 43% from August 2025 is decelerating. Nucor left HRC unchanged for the first time since January — a plateau signal. Cleveland-Cliffs idled its Riverdale mill (June 30) as part of a six-facility program targeting $300M in annual savings, tightening US supply further. THE STRUCTURAL DRIVER: The EU safeguard overhaul (effective July 1) cuts duty-free quotas to 18.3 Mt (−47%) with HRC-specific quota at 5.2 Mt (down from 7.7 Mt) and out-of-quota duty at 50% — Turkey's quota was exhausted day-one. US Section 232 remains at 50% on steel. US capacity utilization at 79.8% with YTD output up 6.0% YoY. LME-SHFE announced a landmark joint venture to list Steel HRC Shanghai futures in October 2026, giving international participants direct China exposure. The market remains split: tariff-protected US tightness vs. global surplus from China's overcapacity — expect range-bound trading with downside risk from softening global demand.
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