HRC Steel Intelligence Report

The US HRC steel market enters Q3 2026 in consolidation after the policy-driven rally that pushed prices above $1,150/st. CME HRC at $1,155/st is 33% higher YoY — but momentum has stalled. The EU safeguard overhaul (July 1) halves duty-free quotas and doubles out-of-quota tariffs to 50%, a direct cost catalyst for European buyers. In the US, Section 232 at 50% on steel continues to shield domestic mills from import pressure, while US raw steel production runs at 79.8% capacity — up 6% YTD but still not enough to meet all demand. Limited spot product and extended lead times characterize the plate market. THE STRUCTURAL DRIVER: AI data center construction will consume 4.2 million short tons of steel in 2026, up 35% YoY, providing a multi-year demand floor. But global crude steel output is down 1.5% YTD, Chinese production fell 2.7% in May, and Hoa Phat's $34/t price cut signals Asian weakness. The market is balanced between tariff-protected US demand and global surplus — expect range-bound trading with a slight bullish bias on policy support.