COMEX gold settled at $4,364.10/oz on June 9 — down 22% from the January all-time high of $5,589 but still up 28% year-over-year and 64% above the 2025 annual average of $3,431. Central bank purchases maintained a 244-tonne pace in Q1 2026 (above the 5-year average), ETF holdings sit at 4,121 tonnes just below record highs, and China added gold for a 19th consecutive month in May. The decline from January peaks reflects hawkish Fed repricing and profit-taking, but three structural pillars — sovereign demand, geopolitical risk premium, and institutional portfolio reallocation — remain intact. This report covers price structure, supply-demand dynamics, inventory and ETF positioning, policy outlook, scenario framework, and forward contracting strategy.
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