Coking Coal Intelligence Report

KPI Key Market Indicators

E Executive Summary

The coking coal market entered Week 6 of June 2026 with a distinctly bullish bias, driven by supply-side disruption in China and constrained seaborne availability from Australia. A deadly mine explosion in Shanxi province during late May triggered widespread safety inspections and production suspensions, sending Chinese domestic coking coal prices sharply higher by approximately 8%. This supply shock reverberated through global markets, increasing import inquiries for Australian seaborne metallurgical coal.

Australian premium hard coking coal (HCC) on a FOB basis was assessed at $240.50 per metric ton as of early June, reflecting a 1.2% increase from the prior week and supported by tight Queensland supply, restocking demand from Indian mills, and emerging Chinese import interest. US East Coast HCC (low-vol, FOB Hampton Roads) held steady at $192.50 per metric ton, while China's domestic EXW Anze price surged to approximately $255 per metric ton in the wake of the Shanxi disruption.

The structural demand picture remains bifurcated. Chinese crude steel output continued to contract (down 4% YoY forecast for 2026), while India's steel sector grew at 11% YoY, cementing its role as the primary engine of seaborne coking coal demand. BMI (Fitch Solutions) revised its 2026 Australian PLV price forecast upward to $210/mt from $190/mt, citing persistent supply-side cost pressures. Key risks include the duration of Shanxi mine suspensions, geopolitical instability in the Middle East, and the pace of Indian steel capacity additions.

P Price Benchmarks

Global Benchmark Price Table (Week 6, June 2026)

* China domestic price surged approximately 8% after the Shanxi mine disaster on May 25; $255/mt reflects post-surge level as of late May / early June.

Australian HCC FOB Premium Low Vol (PLV)

The Australian premium low-vol hard coking coal benchmark (PLV FOB Australia) was assessed at $240.50 per metric ton in early June, up 1.2% from the prior week and approximately 17% above the Q4 2025 average of $213/mt (per Warrior Met Coal Q1 2026 earnings). The market has been supported by supply constraints in Queensland, including rail bottlenecks and mine-specific disruptions. An uptick in Chinese import inquiries following the Shanxi incident added further upward momentum.

US HCC (FOB Hampton Roads)

US East Coast coking coal prices remained stable during the period. Argus assessed low-vol FOB Hampton Roads at $192.50/mt, high-vol A at $157.50/mt, and high-vol B at $147.50/mt. Alabama low-vol was assessed at $230/mt. The US market has seen less volatility than the Asian-led benchmarks, with steady European offtake and consistent metallurgical coke demand providing a floor. Warrior Met Coal reported cash cost of sales (FOB port) at $96/short ton in Q1 2026, a 14% reduction driven by the leverage of lower-cost Blue Creek production.

China Domestic Coking Coal

Chinese domestic coking coal prices experienced a sharp upward spike in late May following a deadly explosion at a coal mine in Shanxi province. The incident triggered safety inspections and production suspensions across the region. The EXW Anze price, which stood at approximately $238.80/mt in mid-May, surged to an estimated $255/mt as of late May. The Dalian Commodity Exchange coking coal futures posted their best weekly performance in six weeks. A June 1 national safety campaign could extend the disruption, sustaining upward pressure on domestic prices and potentially increasing Chinese demand for seaborne Australian HCC.

C Price Trend Analysis

Source: Composite of Kallanish, Argus, IndexBox, and Platts assessments. Australian HCC = PLV FOB Australia; US HCC = Low-Vol FOB Hampton Roads; China EXW = Anze domestic ex-works. May 2026 China data includes post-Shanxi surge.

S Supply and Demand Dynamics

Supply Constraints

• Australia (Queensland): Persistent supply tightness driven by rail infrastructure bottlenecks and mine-specific operational challenges. Queensland producers supply the largest volume of seaborne coking coal globally. The Grosvenor mine restart timeline remains uncertain following the 2024 fire incident.
• China (Shanxi): The deadly mine explosion on May 25 triggered broad safety inspections and production suspensions. Shanxi province produces the majority of China's high-quality coking coal. A national safety campaign beginning June 1 may prolong the disruption.
• Anglo American / Peabody / Dhilmar: Anglo American completed the sale of its Australian steelmaking coal portfolio to UK-based Dhilmar for up to $3.88 billion. The transaction resolves near-term ownership uncertainty but arbitration with Peabody over the collapsed $3.78 billion deal remains ongoing. This has introduced a degree of strategic uncertainty for the Moranbah North and Grosvenor assets.
• Russia: Expanding export capacity through rail infrastructure linked to the Elga coal mine, but quality differences limit the competitive impact on Australian premium HCC.

Demand Drivers

• India (Primary Growth Engine): Crude steel output rose 11% YoY, reaching approximately 15.3 million tonnes in March 2026 (Centrum report). Full-year 2026 projection: 180 million tonnes (+9.3% per BMI). India imports 90% of its metallurgical coal requirements. Met coal imports rose 9.4% YoY in 2025 to 83.1 million tonnes, projected to reach 94 million tonnes in 2026 and 149 million tonnes by 2035 (S&P Global).
• China (Structural Decline): Crude steel production forecast to decline 4% YoY to 922 million tonnes in 2026 (BMI). Coal use in energy-intensive industry declined as steel output shrank 4% in 2025 (IEA). However, the Shanxi supply disruption may temporarily boost import demand for seaborne Australian HCC.
• Rest of Asia: Southeast Asian buyers (Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines) continue to support demand growth, front-loading cargoes amid fears of seasonal cyclones and supply disruptions.
• Europe: Steady metallurgical coke demand, partially redirected from Asia. European steel output remained subdued but stable.

Demand Outlook Summary

D Steel Production Divergence: India vs China

Source: Centrum Report (May 2026), BMI/Fitch Solutions, IEA Global Energy Review 2026. India data reflects reported monthly output; China data based on NBS and BMI estimates. The structural divergence between declining Chinese and surging Indian steel output is the dominant demand-side narrative for seaborne coking coal markets.

M Corporate Developments and M&A

• Anglo American / Dhilmar Transaction: On May 18, 2026, Anglo American agreed to sell its Australian steelmaking coal portfolio (Moranbah North, Grosvenor, and other assets) to UK-based Dhilmar Limited for up to $3.875 billion. The deal includes a $2.3 billion upfront payment with earnout provisions. Completion is targeted for Q1 2027. Anglo American continues to pursue arbitration against Peabody regarding the collapsed $3.78 billion deal.
• Peabody Arbitration: The arbitration process over Peabody's withdrawal from the November 2024 acquisition agreement (citing a Material Adverse Change after the Moranbah North mine fire) remains ongoing. The arbitration timeline may extend beyond the Dhilmar transaction completion.
• Warrior Met Coal (HCC): Q1 2026 results showed PLV FOB Australia averaging $213/short ton, 17% above Q4 2025. Cash costs fell 14% to $96/short ton FOB port, driven by the lower-cost Blue Creek mine and benefiting from the 45X production tax credit.
• Rio Tinto / Glencore Speculation: Reuters Breakingviews noted that Rio Tinto may revisit a potential Glencore tie-up, noting that Iran-driven gains have made coal "less of a drag" on Glencore's valuation. Glencore's share price rose 23% since merger talks collapsed in February 2026.

R Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Risk Factors

• Middle East Conflict: The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (Iran conflict) have disrupted energy markets and increased demand for coal as buyers sought alternatives to LNG. A prolonged conflict could weaken global economic growth and reduce steel demand, placing downward pressure on coking coal prices (BMI).
• Shanxi Safety Campaign: The June 1 national safety campaign in China could materially extend the production disruption at Shanxi mines. The impact on global coking coal prices depends on the duration of inspections and whether quota reductions are formally implemented by state-owned coal producers.
• Australia Petrol/Diesel Reserve Release: Australia extended measures releasing petrol and diesel from domestic reserves, signaling energy supply concerns related to the Iran conflict. This indirectly affects mining operational costs in the Bowen Basin.
• Monsoon Season (India): The Indian monsoon season typically supports import demand as domestic logistics face weather-related disruptions. Buyers are expected to front-load cargoes.

D Data Transparency

This report synthesizes pricing and market data from multiple independent sources, including Kallanish, Argus, S&P Global Platts, IndexBox, BMI (Fitch Solutions), the IEA, Mysteel, and company filings (Warrior Met Coal, Anglo American). All prices are quoted in USD per metric ton unless otherwise noted.

F Forecast and Outlook

Near-Term (Q3 2026)

• Australian HCC PLV expected to trade in the $230-$255/mt range, with upside risk if Shanxi disruptions persist through July.
• Chinese domestic coking coal prices likely to remain elevated as safety inspections continue and mills rebuild inventories.
• Indian restocking ahead of monsoon season will sustain seaborne demand.
• US HCC prices expected to remain range-bound given stable European offtake and limited supply disruptions.

Medium-Term (H2 2026 - H1 2027)

• BMI's revised forecast of $210/mt for Australian PLV appears achievable given current supply constraints, though downside risks from weaker Chinese steel output remain.
• India's steel capacity expansion plans suggest sustained structural demand growth for seaborne coking coal, with imports projected to reach 149 million tonnes by 2035.
• Anglo American's exit from steelmaking coal and the Dhilmar transaction will reshape the Australian supply landscape. The Peabody arbitration outcome could have implications for M&A contract structures.
• The global energy transition continues to create uncertainty around long-term coal investment, potentially constraining new supply capacity even as demand from emerging markets grows.

Key Indicators to Monitor

• Duration of Shanxi mine safety inspections and any formal production quota reductions
• Weekly Chinese coking coal import volumes (Australian, Mongolian, Russian origin)
• Indian crude steel production data (monthly, Joint Plant Committee)
• Queensland coal rail throughput and port inventory levels
• Middle East geopolitical developments affecting energy markets and global growth
• Anglo American / Peabody arbitration developments

V Compliance and Disclaimers