Newcastle thermal coal at $136.86/mt (May 2026, World Bank) — and $145-150/mt on ICE futures — enters the Northern summer in the tightest supply-demand configuration since 2022. Indonesia's production is down 7% YoY with exports tracking an 11% decline. The Shanxi mine disaster (82 dead) has triggered sweeping safety inspections across China's largest coal province. The Iran-LNG crisis is driving an additional 70 Mt of Asia-Pacific coal demand. Buyers face a classic supply-constrained market with upside skew through Q3. The strategic position: DEFENSIVE — lock near-term volumes, maintain flexibility for potential Hormuz reopening.
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