Brent crude sits at $89.80/bbl holding a $15-25 war-risk premium as the US-Iran standoff enters Day 165 with no Hormuz reopening in sight. Iran's foreign minister said Aug 10 the strait will not reopen without US concessions: sanctions relief, war reparations, frozen assets, naval withdrawal. Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers and a declared blockade of Saudi shipping cut Bab el-Mandeb traffic to about 25 vessels/day from roughly 35 in June. EIA (Aug 11) estimates 5.5 mb/d of shut-in production, global inventory draws of 4.2 mb/d in 2Q26 and 3.8 mb/d in 3Q26, and forecasts Brent averaging $85 in 3Q26, $78 in 4Q26, and $69 in 2027 as flows normalize from September. OPEC+ raised September quotas 188 kb/d (Aug 2) but actual exports stay constrained by Hormuz. US crude output is at a record 13.80 mb/d. Procurement posture: DEFENSIVE - do not lock term volumes at current levels; hedge the $100+ tail; keep WTI-linked alternatives open. Data limitations: spot price from ICE pipeline feed (Aug 12). EIA STEO Aug 11 is current. Analyst decks: Goldman Jul 23, JPM Jul 21, Morgan Stanley Apr (maintained). FACT