Brent crude has fallen 14% to $78.94/bbl from the Jul 22 peak of $91.91 as the geopolitical risk premium unwinds on diplomatic progress. Trump halted planned strikes on Iran (Aug 2). US Secretary Rubio confirmed progress in talks with Iran and Oman over reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran denies direct talks but acknowledges discussions with Oman about a temporary transit route. The market has rapidly repriced from conflict-driven to diplomacy-driven pricing — Brent gave back half of the re-escalation rally in two weeks. OPEC+ approved a sixth consecutive monthly output increase (188 kb/d for Sept), completing the planned unwind of 2023-era voluntary cuts, though actual exports remain constrained by Hormuz. US commercial crude inventories at 404.5 Mbbl remain below the 5-year average. The forward curve has shifted from backwardation to slight contango, signaling easing near-term supply fears. Goldman Sachs (Aug 4) forecasts $80-90/bbl until a US-Iran deal or escalation confirms direction. Procurement posture: DEFENSIVE — do not lock long-term volumes at current levels; the asymmetry has shifted toward downside as diplomacy gains momentum. Data limitations: spot price from ICE pipeline feed. EIA STEO dated Jul 7 (pre-escalation). Goldman Sachs Aug 4 forecast is current. FACT