Brent crude has surged 29% in two weeks to $91.91/bbl as the US-Iran Hormuz ceasefire collapsed and military strikes entered their 11th consecutive night. The Jun 18 MoU framework that briefly reopened the Strait of Hormuz has broken down under a second, harder escalation cycle. Iran has re-declared the strait closed. Houthi militants have declared a Saudi shipping embargo via Bab el-Mandeb. CPC terminal attacks on Russia's Black Sea coast disrupt Kazakh exports. Supply risk has repriced sharply higher as the crisis enters Day 143 with no end in sight. The prior analyst consensus (EIA $74 Q3, JPM $86 Q3) is now stale — every forecast was issued before the Jul 8 escalation. Procurement posture: LOCK NOW — secure 3-6 month term volumes at current levels; the asymmetry favors higher prices if the conflict intensifies. Data limitations: spot price from ICE pipeline feed; supply-demand context from EIA STEO Jul 7 (pre-escalation) supplemented by research. FACT