Aluminum settled at $3,272/mt on August 17 (+9.6% YTD), but the prompt squeeze that drove the early-August rally has faded: by August 20 the cash-3M spread was flat to a $1-2/t contango and cancelled warrants stood at just 2,450t — 1% of the 246,925t LME stock total, the lowest since 1990. The stock floor is real but stationary; public prints eased to $3,180-3,250 by August 21. Hormuz diplomacy is deadlocked (9 commodity transits/day vs ~130 pre-war) while Indonesian supply arrives from October. Layer 3-6 month coverage on dips to $3,000-3,150; do not chase above $3,450. US buyers: the all-in basis exceeds $5,400/t with 50% Section 232 and a record Midwest Premium.
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