Aluminum settled at $3,248/mt on August 14, 26% above year-ago levels, with the acute tightness trade rebuilding: LME stocks at 254,900t on August 11 are the lowest since 1990, and the cash-3M spread flipped back to $9/t backwardation after Alunorte's gas-driven cut to 50% capacity removed an estimated 100-120kt of alumina. The stock floor is firm — roughly five days of global consumption — but the deficit is narrowing as Gulf restarts progress: ING cut its 2026 deficit to 1.2 Mt, Wood Mackenzie to 0.9-1.0 Mt, and Morgan Stanley sees an 830kt surplus in 2027. Buy in layers on dips to $3,100-3,200; do not chase above $3,400. US buyers: the all-in basis exceeds $5,300/t with 50% Section 232.
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