Aluminum recovered to $3,279.5/mt, but the cash-3M spread collapsed from $44.50 backwardation to a $0.5 contango in ten days — the tightness signal has eased even as LME stocks sit at 256,400t, the lowest this century. Middle East supply is recovering faster than expected: EGA's Al Taweelah restart is accelerating, and ING cut its 2026 deficit from 1.8 Mt to 1.2 Mt. The 6.2% rebound off the July 3 low is real but capped: deficits persist (Macquarie 930kt, JPMorgan 1.9 Mt), Section 232 at 50% keeps US costs decoupled, and stocks below 260kt keep a hard floor under price. Buy in layers on dips to $3,100-3,200; do not chase above $3,300.
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