Aluminum has corrected 17% from its May peak, but the structural deficit persists and backwardation has widened to $14.5/t. LME stocks at 272,775t are at 20-year lows, down 43% YTD. Gulf supply disruptions have removed ~2.4 Mt/y of Western production. EGA's Al Taweelah restart (ahead of schedule) provides marginal relief, but the deficit remains. Macquarie forecasts a 930,000t shortfall for 2026. The current $3,100-3,200/t zone represents a buying window before structural repricing reasserts.
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