INTELLIGENCE REPORT

Aluminum Intelligence Report

July 20, 2026 · Intelligence Report · Aluminum (LME · COMEX · SHFE)
BUYER: DEFENSIVE

Aluminum has corrected 17% from its May peak ($3,797 to $3,154/mt) as the Gulf ceasefire eases risk premiums, but the structural deficit remains intact. Gulf smelter disruptions (Al Taweelah fully idled, Alba/Qatalum curtailed) have removed ~2.4 Mt/y of Western production — the largest peacetime supply shock in the metal's history. LME stocks at 280kt cover under 4 days of global demand, down 43% YTD. The correction is a temporary reprieve, not a reversal. Buyers should treat the $3,100-3,200/mt zone as a buying opportunity within a structural bull market that persists through 2027. FACT

LME Cash
$3,154
-17% from May peak
COMEX
$3,529
+2% vs LME
SHFE
CNY 24,825
-6,800 vs LME
LME Stocks
280kt
-43% YTD
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Data status: LME data as of July 20, 2026. COMEX data as of latest available. Analyst forecasts dated per source.